AMRO Upgrades 2026 Growth Forecast for ASEAN+3 Region to 4.1%, Citing AI and Semiconductor Demand as Key Drivers
On July 27, AMRO raised its 2026 ASEAN+3 growth forecast to 4.1% from 4.0%, kept 2027 at 4.0%, citing robust AI demand offsetting Middle East conflict headwinds.
ASIA,ECONOMY
Global N Press
7/27/20261 min read
On July 27, 2026, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) released its July 2026 ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Update, raising its 2026 economic growth forecast for the ASEAN+3 region – comprising the 11 ASEAN member states plus China, Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong – to 4.1 percent, up from its 4.0 percent projection in June, while maintaining the 2027 growth forecast at 4.0 percent.
AMRO Lead Economist Allen Ng stated in a briefing that robust artificial intelligence-driven demand offset headwinds from the Middle East conflict, driving the upward revision. He noted that the ASEAN+3 region currently accounts for about half of the world's AI-related trade, and stronger-than-expected AI-related demand is supporting growth and lifting the outlook for regional economies, particularly those with strong global supply chain linkages.
Household spending also remained firm, supported by favorable labor market conditions and continued income growth, especially in ASEAN economies, while the return of Chinese travelers provided further support to tourism-driven export growth. AMRO projected China to grow at 4.5 percent in 2026, Japan at 0.6 percent, and South Korea at 3.1 percent, while overall ASEAN growth is expected to ease to 4.8 percent in 2026 from 4.9 percent in 2025.
Regional inflation is forecast to average 1.6 percent in 2026, down from the 1.8 percent projection in June, reflecting expectations of lower global commodity prices. AMRO Chief Economist Dong He noted that the Philippines is one of the countries in the region hardest hit by the oil price shock but will continue to benefit from AI industry growth. AMRO warned that escalation of the Middle East conflict remains a major downside risk to the regional economic outlook.
