Russia's Economic Growth Slows for Third Consecutive Quarter, Momentum Fades

October 30, 2025 - Russia's economy slowed for the third consecutive quarter, according to data from the Economic Development Ministry, which estimated GDP grew by just 0.6% year-on-year in July-September, down from 1.1% in Q2 and 4.5% in Q4 2024. Overall, the economy expanded by only 1% in the first nine months of 2025, four times slower than the 4.3% growth recorded a year earlier. Industrial growth plummeted to 0.5% from 5.6% in 2024, with key civilian sectors now in decline.

The ministry reported food production fell 0.2%, textiles and footwear dropped 2.3%, furniture manufacturing plunged nearly 10%, and oil refining contracted by 4.5% following Ukrainian drone attacks. The metallurgical industry also slipped into recession for the first time since 2022, with output down 3.3%. Alexandra Prokopenko from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center noted that massive wartime spending had previously fueled rapid growth, but now "production capacity and labor reserves are exhausted".