European Commission Forecasts Sustained Moderate Growth for EU Economy

On November 17, 2025, the European Commission's Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast projected that the EU economy would maintain moderate growth despite a challenging global environment, with performance in the first three quarters exceeding expectations. The forecast predicts EU real GDP growth rates of 1.4% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026, and 1.5% in 2027, while inflation is expected to gradually decline from 2.5% in 2025 to 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027.

The report identifies US tariff policy as a key variable for the global and EU economic outlook, noting that while EU exports to the US retain certain competitive advantages, weak external demand and a strong euro will lead to a negative contribution from net exports to GDP in 2025 and 2026, turning neutral only in 2027. Private consumption is expected to grow at a stable 1.5% over the 2025-2027 period, and investment, after a modest 2.0% increase in 2025, is forecast to accelerate significantly to 2.6% in 2026.