China’s manufacturing sector set to shrink for eighth month as economic recovery remains fragile

According to a Reuters poll of economists published on November 28, 2025, China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was forecast to come in at 49.2 for November. If realized, this would mark the eighth consecutive month of contraction for Chinese manufacturing. The prolonged slump reflects weak global demand, continued domestic property sector troubles, and diminishing effectiveness of China’s traditional stimulus tools centered on exports and infrastructure.

With industrial profits under pressure, analysts warn that without robust structural reforms or stronger fiscal-monetary support, China may face a prolonged period of "low growth, low confidence and low inflation," which could ripple through global supply chains and weigh on international trade flows.