Analyses Suggest 2025 a "Watershed" Year for EU Strategic Autonomy Under Mounting Strain

In late December 2025, analyses indicated that persistent transatlantic friction, policy splits among member states, and constrained efforts to diversify partnerships have placed the European Union's pursuit of strategic autonomy under sustained strain, turning 2025 into a "watershed" year for the bloc. External pressure persisted year-round: U.S. sanctions on Europeans late in the year were seen as retaliation for EU regulatory fines; a U.S. National Security Strategy used unprecedented negative tone assessing the EU faced "civilizational erasure," aiming to "help Europe correct its trajectory," interpreted in Europe as a license for political interference; and wavering U.S. security guarantees pushed EU states to drastically raise defense spending.

Internal rifts also widened: traditional pillars France and Germany, under domestic far-right pressure, saw weakened coordination and diverged on issues from Palestine recognition to cooperation with non-EU partners. Member states also struggled for unity on key policies like using frozen Russian assets or joint borrowing.