Goldman Sachs Cuts US Growth Forecast as Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Risks
On March 12, 2026, Goldman Sachs downgraded its 2026 U.S. economic growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.8%, citing the sustained impact of the Middle East conflict on energy markets, with economists noting that the war's primary transmission channel is through oil prices, now projected to average $98 per barrel for Brent crude in March and April—40% higher than the 2025 average.
UNITED STATES,ECONOMY
Global N Press
3/12/20261 min read
On March 12, 2026, Goldman Sachs downgraded its 2026 U.S. economic growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.8%, citing the sustained impact of the Middle East conflict on energy markets, with economists noting that the war's primary transmission channel is through oil prices, now projected to average $98 per barrel for Brent crude in March and April—40% higher than the 2025 average.
Consequently, Goldman now expects the PCE price index to rise 2.9% year-over-year in December, significantly above the prior 2.1% estimate. Meanwhile, Labor Department data released March 11 showed February CPI rose 2.4% annually and core CPI increased 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021, though analysts warned this data is already "outdated" due to the oil surge, with March inflation potentially returning to the "3% handle."
