IEA Warns Middle East Conflict Will Deepen Global Oil Supply Gap in 2026
IEA warned Middle East conflict and Gulf energy disruptions could cut oil supply by 5.7 million barrels daily in 2026, roughly 6% and worse than forecast.
MIDDLE EAST,ECONOMY
Global N Press
9/11/20261 min read
On September 11, 2026, the International Energy Agency warned that continuing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to Gulf energy flows could reduce global oil supply by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, equivalent to about 6% of worldwide supply and a larger decline than previously forecast. The agency said attacks on tankers, energy facilities and transport routes were continuing to disrupt production and exports, with Saudi oil output falling to around 6 million barrels per day, its lowest level in more than three decades.
Refined fuel markets have faced particularly strong pressure, with diesel prices rising sharply and global inventories declining rapidly. The IEA estimated that oil stocks fell by about 3.1 million barrels per day in August, reducing the market's ability to absorb further disruptions. While higher energy costs and the conflict have also weakened demand, with global oil consumption expected to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, both the IEA and OPEC expect a significant recovery in demand in 2027. The crisis has therefore become a major global economic issue, affecting energy prices, inflation, monetary policy and growth prospects well beyond the Middle East.
