MENA Economy Set to Outpace Global Growth in 2026, Driven by Digital Shift and Non-Oil Sectors

January 2026 – The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is poised for robust economic expansion in 2026, according to several key forecasts. The Mastercard Economics Institute projects regional GDP to grow by 3.6%, outpacing the anticipated global average of 3.1%. Growth is led by Qatar (4.9%, driven by LNG production), while the non-oil sectors of Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are expected to expand by close to 5%, significantly faster than their overall economies. This momentum is fueled by structural reforms and massive investments under long-term national visions, such as Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and the UAE's National Strategy for Artificial Intelligence 2031, which are channeling funds into renewables, digital infrastructure, and technology to reshape supply chains and attract talent.

Digital transformation, particularly deeper AI integration, is highlighted as a critical driver for future productivity and growth. Fitch Ratings aligns with this outlook, assigning a "neutral" sovereign rating perspective for the region in 2026, citing stable oil prices, solid growth, and fiscal reforms. However, reports consistently warn that geopolitical tensions and climate-related challenges remain significant downside risks that could disrupt this positive trajectory.