Middle East Conflict Sparks Commodity Market Shock as UN Report Forecasts 24% Energy Price Surge in 2026

On April 28, 2026, the United Nations cited the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook report, released in Washington, in warning that the ongoing Middle East conflict is inflicting severe disruption on global commodity markets and is set to trigger the largest energy price spike in four years. The report projects that energy prices will rise by 24 percent in 2026, driving overall commodity prices up by 16 percent and compounding global inflationary pressures through elevated food and fertilizer costs, with developing economies bearing the most acute impacts. The findings follow data from a newly launched UNCTAD online tracking dashboard, which revealed that vessel traffic transiting the Strait of Hormuz had plummeted by 95.3 percent since February 28, while global bulk food prices rose by 6 percent and European crude oil prices surged by 53 percent.

Stéphane Dujarric, the UN Secretary-General’s spokesperson, stated at a regular press briefing that the near-paralysis of maritime passage through the strait has severely disrupted global energy supply chains and trade logistics. The report cautions that should the conflict persist or escalate, elevated energy prices could become entrenched, generating sustained inflationary pressure, weakening global economic growth prospects, and confronting developing countries with the twin perils of currency depreciation and rising borrowing costs.