OPEC Data Expose “Bypass-Style” Supply Recovery as Saudi Output Hits 10.56 Million b/d and Brent Sheds About 21% in a Fortnight
Saudi Arabia produced 10.56 million barrels of crude daily in October, up 26% monthly, while Iraq’s output also reached a wartime high of nearly 4.9 million.
MIDDLE EAST,ECONOMY
Global N Press
11/12/20261 min read
OPEC’s monthly report and tracking data released on 11–12 November 2026 laid bare a dramatic shift in Middle East oil supply. Saudi Arabia reported October crude output of 10.56 million barrels per day, up 26% month-on-month and the highest since the February 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict began — only a few hundred thousand barrels below pre-war levels and slightly above its OPEC quota; Iraq also reported a wartime high near 4.9 million b/d. OPEC output rose nearly 2 million b/d to about 27.2 million b/d, versus roughly 28.6 million b/d before the conflict.
The supply rebound drove prices sharply lower: Brent has fallen about 21% month-to-date to around $93 a barrel, with U.S. crude near $85.50 on 12 November. The recovery’s foundation is fragile, however. Confirmed transits through the Strait of Hormuz average only about 4 million b/d, roughly a quarter of the pre-conflict 17 million b/d; Gulf producers are sustaining exports through pipelines, ship-to-ship transfers and transponder-off voyages rather than a reopened strait.
Saudi Aramco cut its December Arab Light official selling price to Asia by $2 a barrel to a $7 discount to the Oman/Dubai benchmark, compensating buyers for war-risk transport costs. The seven core OPEC+ producers on 1 November kept December output at September levels, about 31.01 million b/d, pausing increases for a third month, with 2027 quotas deferred to a 29 November ministerial meeting. The price decline reflects bypass logistics rather than reduced geopolitical risk; any escalation targeting alternative pipelines, Red Sea routes or transfer nodes could swiftly reverse the supply improvement and transmit renewed inflation pressure to global central banks.
