Russian Central Bank Cuts Key Rate to 14% in Tenth Consecutive Cut, Sharply Raises Inflation Forecast and Slashes Growth Outlook to Near Zero
On July 24, 2026, the Russian Central Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 14%, marking the tenth consecutive rate cut since June 2025.
RUSSIA,ECONOMY
Globa N Press
7/28/20261 min read
On July 24, 2026, the Russian Central Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 14%, marking the tenth consecutive rate cut since June 2025. The decision surprised most analysts, with the majority in a Reuters poll having expected the bank to hold rates steady due to rising fuel prices. The central bank simultaneously raised its 2026 inflation forecast to between 6% and 7%, up from a previous estimate of 4.5% to 5.5%, citing "the considerable rise in fuel prices" driven by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. Annual inflation stood at 5.9% as of July 20 and reached 5.94% by July 27. The central bank also lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to between zero and 1%, down from a previous projection of 0.5% to 1.5%, suggesting the Russian economy might not grow at all this year.
In its statement, the central bank noted that the economy as a whole grew at a moderate pace in the second quarter of 2026, but considerable price growth and higher inflation expectations in the summer months were mainly associated with one-off factors. The bank also removed a long-standing phrase about continuing to assess the need for further rate cuts at future meetings, signaling a possible pause at its next policy meeting. On July 28, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia's recent fuel crisis had begun to ease as several refineries resumed operations, with supply-demand balance improving, though the situation remains tense in some regions including parts of Siberia.
